Prediction Model of Eco-tourism Visitor's Intention to Pahawang Island, Lampung Province, Indonesia


A rise in tourism activities, including the marine ecotourism object of Pahawang Island, Lampung Bay, Indonesia, was observed once the COVID-19 pandemic started reducing This research aimed to determine the influence of the characters of potential tourists to Pahawang Island, conducted from May to August 2022; and therefore make a prediction model of their interest as a basis for management and planning for this island. This study applies ordinal logistic regression modeling using Minitab 18 software at a 95% confidence level. The three levels of the response variable scored 0, 1, and 2 to express the tourists’ interest to visit Pahawang Island. Predictor variables are respondent characteristics, consisting of the respondent’s origin, age, gender, number of dependents, income, and professional group. Data was collected using Google Forms (in English, French, Japanese, Korean, and Arabic) to show response variables and predictor variables. Results of the research showed that: (1) interest in visiting Pahawang Island was influenced by (a) country origin, with very few visitors being foreigners, with P = 0.037; (b) those who were 1 year older had an interest rate higher than 1.07; and (c) those whose professions were civil servants had lower interest, compared to housewives/students, while other professions were not significantly different; and (2) the ratio between those who were interested and the ones not interested in visiting can be modeled robustly (goodness and fit) using 9 variables of respondent characteristics as evidenced by the results of the Statistical Test G = 38.726; DF = 9; P−value = 0.037. This finding is very useful for management planning and developing interest in ecotourism at Pahawang Island after the COVID-19 pandemic.

Keywords: tourism management, ecotourism, post-COVID-19 pandemic, ordinal logistics regression, tourist characteristic

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