Forecasting the Export Unit Value Index in Indonesia Using the Single Input Transfer Function
Abstract
Export is one of the factors that increase the economic growth of a country. One measure of export activity that can describe economic growth in Indonesia is The Export Unit Value Index, which is an index that measures changes in the price of export commodities sold by residents of one country to residents of other countries. The purpose of this study is to predict the unit value index of exports in Indonesia using a single input transfer function model and to see the influence of the value of oil and gas and non-oil and gas exports on the unit value index of exports in Indonesia. The single input transfer function model is a model that describes the future forecast of a series (output series) obtained based on the past values of the output series and other time series (input series) that affect the output series. The results of this study obtained a transfer function model with the order (0,0,1) with a noise series following ARIMA (1,0,1). Based on this model, the export unit value index at time t is influenced by the unit value export index in the previous month and is influenced by the oil and gas and non-oil and gas export value in the same month. As indicated by its MAPE value of 4.89%, the forecast value does not diverge much from the actual value, which suggests that the transfer function model can be used to predict the export unit value index in Indonesia.
Keywords: forecasting, export unit value index, single input, transfer function
References
[1] Amir MS. Seluk beluk dan teknik perdagangan luar negeri. Jakarta: Pustaka Binaman Presindo; 1984.
[2] BPS. Indeks unit value ekspor menurut kode SITC. Jakarta; 2021.
[3] Rachmawati D, Sutijo B. “Pemodelan konsumsi listrik berdasarkan jumlah pelanggan PLN Jawa Timur untuk kategori rumah tangga R-1 dengan metode fungsi transfer single input.,” Jurnal Sains dan Seni ITS. vol. 2, no. 2, pp. 300–304, 2013.
[4] N. Alifia, E. Zukhronah, and Respatiwulan, “Peramalan jumlah uang kuasi di Indonesia dengan menggunakan fungsi transfer single input.,” In: Peran Perguruan Tinggi dalam Menyiapkan SDM Unggul di Era Kecerdasan Artifisial. Institut Sains & Teknologi AKPRIND, Yogyakarta (2021).
[5] Wahyuni S. Farikhin, and I. Suprayitno, “Peramalan fungsi transfer single input indeks harga saham gabungan terhadap saham negara terdekat.,”. Jurnal Statistika Universitas Muhammadiyah Semarang. 2014;2(2):49–56.
[6] S. Sediono, “Peramalan jumlah penderita demam berdarah Dengue di Kabupaten Jombang Jawa Timur dengan pendekatan fungsi transfer single input.,” Jurnal Matematika Statistika dan Komputasi. vol. 15, no. 2, p. 10, 2018. https://doi.org/10.20956/jmsk.v15i2.5564.
[7] Fitriani LN, Silvianti P. Analisis pengaruh kurs USD terhadap Jakarta Islamic index dengan menggunakan model fungsi transfer. Indonesian Journal of Statistics and Its Applications. 2018;2(2):66–72.
[8] Shumway RH, Stoffer DS. Time series analysis and its applications with r examples. New York: Springer; 2011. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4419-7865-3.
[9] Wei W. Time series analysis: univariate and multivariate methods. New York: Pearson; 2006.
[10] Montgomery DC, Jennings CL, Kulahci M. Introduction to time series analysis and forecasting. New Jersey; 2008.