Increasing Impact Of Stock Market Performance On Government Tax Revenues


The aim of this paper is to investigate the relationship between fiscal policy, economic growth and stock market in the United States. This issue has gained importance in the last decade because the market has changed. A significance break has been detected which impacts the nature of the nexus between certain variables. The correlation between the tax revenues and the stock market has increased noticeably, encouraging the revision of the current approach to fiscal policy. This study examines relationship between three variables, namely real GDP, federal government current tax receipts and the stock market represented by the Wilshire 5000 Total Market Index. Quarterly data from 1971 to 2015 are used, divided into two subsets in the year 2000, because there is an obvious change in trend and volatility of the variables. The analysis uses ADF and KPSS unit root tests to find the order of the integration of the data. Subsequent analysis applies Johansen cointegration test, vector error correction model, Granger causality tests and variance decomposition analysis. The results demonstrate that the selected variables are cointegrated, and performance of the stock market significantly increases its influence on government tax revenues in the second period. The findings of this paper are significant for policy makers. Understanding how stock market development and economic growth influence tax revenues and vice versa is crucial for the efficient implementation of successful fiscal policy. Investors in the economy of the United States will be also able to benefit from these results which will help them to understand economic conditions and improve their investment decisions. 

Keywords: Economic growth, stock market, tax revenue, VECM, variance decomposition

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