Fiscal Policy Behaviour in ASEAN: Countercyclical or Procyclical?

Abstract

Fiscal policy is a policy imposed by the government to influence economic activity in the real sector through expenditure and revenue. Fiscal policy help in smoothing business cycle fluctuations (boom or recession) makes it a potential tool for economic stabilization. Referring to the theory, fiscal policy should have a countercyclical behaviour. Vice versa, many evidence shows if the behaviour of fiscal policy diverse among countries. Therefore, the purpose of this study is to find the fiscal policy behaviour in ASEAN (2001-2018) using the Panel Least Square analysis tool. The estimation results show that the behaviour of fiscal policy in ASEAN are countercyclical for government revenue approach and fiscal balance approach, whereas government expenditure approach is procyclical.


 


Keywords: fiscal policy, fiscal policy behaviour, countercyclical, procyclical

References
[1] Alesina, A., Campante, F. R., & Tabellini, G. (2008, September). Why is fiscal policy often procyclical? Journal of the European Economic Association, 6(5), 1006-1036.

[2] ASEAN Secretariat. (2017). ASEAN economic integration brief. Jakarta: ASEAN Secretariat. [3] ASEAN Secretariat. (2018). ASEAN economic integration brief. Jakarta: ASEAN Secretariat.

[4] Bilgili, F. (2001). The Keynesian-monetarist debate on business cycles: a case study of the great depression. Journal of Faculty of Economics and Administrative Sciences, 17, 54-71.

[5] Bogdanov, B. (2010). Cyclicality of fiscal policy over the business cycle: an empirical study on developed and developing countries. Bulgaria: Agency for Economic Analysis and Forecasting.

[6] Fatas, A., & Mihov, I. (2003). Fiscal policy and business cycles: an empirical investigation. INSEAD dan CERP.

[7] Nizar, M. A. (2011). Siklikalitas kebijakan fiskal di indonesia. Jurnal Keuangan dan Moneter, 14(1), 55-82.

[8] OECD. (2018). Economic outlook for southeast asia, china, and india 2018: fostering growth though digitalisation. OECD Development centre. Paris: OECD Publishing.

[9] Riascos, A., & Vegh, C. A. (2003, October). Procyclical government spending in developing countries: the role of capital market imperfections. Colombia.

[10] Woo, J. (2005). The behaviour of fiscal policy: cyclicality and discretionary fiscal decisions. Chicago.