Is More Always Better? An Empirical Investigation of the CAPM and the Fama-French Three-factor Model in Indonesia

Abstract

This study investigates the performance of the CAPM and the Fama-French threefactor model in Indonesia. This research employs time-series regression with monthly data from 2005 to 2015. The results reveal that the Fama-French three-factor model performs better than the CAPM in describing the excess return of stock portfolios in Indonesia. This result is robust to the equally-weighted method and the impact of the global financial crisis. Although the Fama-French three-factor model is superior to the CAPM, the results indicate that there are other factors to consider in determining asset pricing models that better capture stock return variations in the Indonesian stock market. This research implies that the investors should consider Fama-French factors when making their investment decisions. Furthermore, the investors should evaluate another factor impact the average returns.


 


 


Keywords: Asset pricing, CAPM, Three-factor model, Size factor, Book-to-market factor, JEL Code: G12

References
[1] Basu, S. (1977). Investment performance of common stocks in relation to their priceearnings ratios: A test of the efficient market hypothesis. Journal of Finance, 32(3), 663-682. doi:10.2307/2326304


[2] Basu, S. (1983). The relationship between earnings yield, market value, and return for NYSE common stocks: further evidence. Journal of Financial Economics, 12(1), 129-156. doi:10.1016/0304-405x(83)90031-4


[3] Bhandari, L. C. (1988). Debt/equity ratio and expected common stock returns: Empirical evidence. Journal of Finance, 43(2), 507-528. doi:10.1111/j.1540- 6261.1988.tb03952.x


[4] Bhatnagar, C. S., & Ramlogan, R. (2012). The Capital Asset Pricing Model versus the three factor model: A United Kingdom perspective. International Journal of Business and Social Research, 2(1), 51-65. doi:10.18533/ijbsr.v2i1.204


[5] Black, F. (1972). Capital market equilibrium with restricted borrowing. Journal of Business, 45(3), 444-455. doi:10.1086/295472


[6] Black, F. (1993). Beta and Return. Journal of Portfolio Management, 20(1), 8-18. doi:10.3905/jpm.1993.409462


[7] Cakici, N., Fabozzi, F. J., & Tan, S. (2013). Size, value, and momentum in emerging market stock returns. Emerging Markets Review, 16(C), 46-65. doi:10.1016/j.ememar.2013.03.001


[8] Chan, L. K., Hamao, Y., & Lakonishok, J. (1991). Fundamentals and stock returns in Japan. Journal of Finance, 46(5), 1739-1789. doi:10.2307/2328571


[9] Connor, G., & Sehgal, S. (2001). Tests of the Fama and French model in India. Unpublished Working Paper.


[10] Drew, M. E., & Veeraraghavan, M. (2003). Beta, firm size, book-tomarket equity and stock return. Journal of the Asia Pasific Economy, 8(3). doi:10.1080/13547860306289


[11] Fama, E. F., & French, K. R. (1992). The cross-section of expected stock returns. Journal of Finance, 47(2), 427-465. doi:10.2307/2329112


[12] Fama, E. F., & French, K. R. (1993). Common risk factors in the returns on stocks and bonds. Journal of Financial Economics, 33(1), 3-56. doi:10.1016/0304- 405x(93)90023-5


[13] Fama, E. F., & French, K. R. (1996). Multifactor explanations of asset pricing anomalies. Journal of Finance, 51(1), 55-84. doi:10.1111/j.1540-6261.1996.tb05202.x


[14] Fama, E. F., & French, K. R. (1998). Value versus growth: The international evidence. Journal of Finance, 53(6), 1975-1999. doi:10.1111/0022-1082.00080


[15] Fama, E. F., & MacBeth, J. D. (1973). Risk, return, and equilibrium: Empirical tests. Journal of Political Economy, 81(3), 607-636. doi:10.1086/260061


[16] Gaunt, C. (2004). Size and book to market effects and the Fama French three factor asset pricing model: Evidence from the Australian stock market. Accounting and Finance, 44(1), 27-44. doi:10.1111/j.1467-629x.2004.00100.x


[17] Gibbons, M. R., Ross, S. A., & Shanken, J. (1989). A test of the efficiency of a given portfolio. Econometrica, 57(5), 1121-1152. doi:10.2307/1913625


[18] Graham, J. R., & Harvey, C. R. (2001). The theory and practice of corporate finance: evidence from the field. Journal of Financial Economics, 60(2-3), 187-243. doi:10.1016/S0304-405X(01)00044-7


[19] Griffin, J. M., & Lemmon, M. L. (2002). Book-to-market equity, distress risk, and stock returns. Journal of Finance, 57(5), 2317-2336. doi:10.1111/1540-6261.00497


[20] Halliwell, J., Heaney, J., & Sawicki, J. (1999). Size and book to market effects in Australian share markets: A time series analysis. Accounting Research Journal, 12(2), 122-137. Retrieved from http://hdl.handle.net/1885/91502


[21] Lettau, M., & Ludvigson, S. (2001). Resurrecting the (C)CAPM: A cross-sectional test when risk premia are time-varying. Journal of Political Economy, 109(6), 1238-1287. doi:10.1086/323282


[22] Lewellen, J., Nagel, S., & Shanken, J. (2010). A skeptical appraisal of asset pricing tests. Journal of Financial Economics, 96(2), 175-194. doi:10.1016/j.jfineco.2009.09.001


[23] Liew, J., & Vassalou, M. (2000). Can book-to-market, size and momentum be risk factors that predict economic growth? Journal of Financial Economics, 57(2), 221- 245. doi:10.1016/s0304-405x(00)00056-8


[24] Lintner, J. (1965). The valuation of risk assets and the selection of risky investments in stock portfolios and capital budgets. Review of Economics and Statistics, 47(1), 13-37. doi:10.2307/1924119


[25] MacKinlay, A. C. (1995). Multifactor models do not explain deviations from the CAPM. Journal of Financial Economics, 38(1), 3-28. doi:10.1016/0304- 405x(94)00808-e


[26] Markowitz, H. (1952). Portfolio selection. Journal of Finance, 7(1), 77-91. doi:10.1111/j.1540-6261.1952.tb01525.x


[27] Merton, R. (1973). An Intertemporal Capital Asset Pricing Model. Econometrica, 41(5), 867-887. doi:10.2307/1913811


[28] Miao, D., & Yi, X. (2013). Empirical researches of the capital asset pricing model and the Fama-French three-factor model on the U.S. stock market. Unpublished Working Paper, 1-36.


[29] Mossin, J. (1966). Equilibrium in a capital asset market. Econometrica, 34(4), 768- 783. doi: 10.2307/1910098


[30] Petkova, R. (2006). Do the Fama-French factors proxy for innovations in predictive variables? Journal of Finance, 61(2), 581-612. doi:10.1111/j.1540-6261.2006.00849.x


[31] Reinganum, M. R. (1981). Misspecification of capital asset pricing: empirical anomalies based on earnings yield and market values. Journal of Financial Economics, 9(1), 19-46. doi:10.1016/0304-405x(81)90019-2


[32] Rosenberg, B., Reid, K., & Lanstein, R. (1985). Persuasive evidence of market inefficiency. Journal of Portfolio Management, 11(3), 9-16. doi:10.3905/jpm.1985.409007


[33] Sharpe, W. F. (1964). Capital asset prices: A theory of market equilibrium under conditions of risk. Journal of Finance, 19(3), 425-442. doi:10.1111/j.1540- 6261.1964.tb02865.x


[34] Stattman, D. (1980). Book values and stock returns. The Chicago MBA: A Journal of Selected Papers, 4(1), 25-45.