The Monetary Policy and International Trade Response Amidst Volatility in the Fed's Federal Fund Reserve (FFR): The Emerging Market of Southeast Asian Study
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.18502/kss.v10i5.18126Keywords:
monetary policy, the fed’s federal fund reserve (FFR), the domestic interest rate, international trade, the emerging marker of Southeast AsianAbstract
The purpose of this study was to analyses the domestic moneter policy, inflation and international trade responses to the Fed’s federal fund reserve (FFR) shock in the emerging market of Southeast Asian such Indonesia, Malaysia, Viet Nam, Thailand, and Philipine. The data analysis method used was Vector Autoregression (VAR) to persive the domestic interest rate, exported, imported and inflation to the Fed’s federal fund reserve (FFR) shock as well as exported, imported and inflation variables response to the domestic interest rate changed in each country. The result of study shown that the Fed’s federal fund reserve (FFR) shock results diverse responses in each country. These reflecte the difference of economic structure and monetery policy. The response of exported, imported, and inflation variables on the domestic interest rate changed also have a response variation each country. This finding confirms that domestic monetery policy need to be adjusted with economic circumstance and trade characteristic in each country to address external shock such ach the Fed’s federal fund reserve (FFR) policy.
References
Bruno V, Shin HS. Capital flows and the risk-taking channel of monetary policy [Internet]. J Monet Econ. 2015;71:119–32. Available from: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0304393214001688 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmoneco.2014.11.011
Branson WH. Macroeconomic theory and policy. Vol. 3. Harper & Row New York; 1972.
Krugman PR, Obstfeld M. International economics: Theory and policy. Pearson Education; 2009.
Mundell RA. Capital Mobility and Stabilization Policy under Fixed and Flexible Exchange Rates. Vol. 29, Science politique. 1963. https://doi.org/10.2307/139336. DOI: https://doi.org/10.2307/139336
Fleming JM. Domestic Financial Policies Under Fixed and Under Floating Exchange Rates. Staff Pap Int Monet Fund. 1962;9(369). DOI: https://doi.org/10.2307/3866091
Krugman PR, Obstfeld M, Melitz MJ. International Economics. Pearson Education; 2009.
Dornbusch R, Fischer S, Startz R. Macroeconomía. In: Bookman Editora. 2013.
Rey H. Dilemma not Trilemma: The Global Financial Cycle and Monetary Policy Independence. National Bureau of Economic Research. 2015;No. 21162. DOI: https://doi.org/10.3386/w21162
Ammer J, De Pooter M, Erceg CJ, Kamin SB. International spillovers of monetary policy. US: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System; 2016. https://doi.org/10.17016/2573-2129.15. DOI: https://doi.org/10.17016/2573-2129.15
Bauer MD, Swanson ET. The Fed’s Response to Economic News Explains the “Fed Information Effect” [Internet]. 2020. Available from: www.RePEc.org DOI: https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3552391
Sharma C, Setia R. Effects of Monetary Shocks on Exchange Rate: empirical Evidence from India. Studies in Business and Economics. 2017 Aug;12(2):206–19. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1515/sbe-2017-0030
Kontonikas A, Maio P, Zekaite Z. Essex Finance Centre Working Paper Series Monetary Policy and Corporate Bond Returns Monetary Policy and Corporate Bond Returns * [Internet]. Working Paper. Essex Finance Centre Working Papers, Colchester. 2017. Available from: http://www.essex.ac.uk/ebs/ DOI: https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2722535
Mukhlis I, Hidayah I, Retnasih NR. Interest Rate Volatility of the Federal Funds Rate: Response of the Bank Indonesia and its Impact on the Indonesian Economic Stability. Journal of Central Banking Theory and Practice. 2020 Jan;9(1):111–33. DOI: https://doi.org/10.2478/jcbtp-2020-0007
Gujarati DN, Porter DC. Basic econometrics. In New York: MC Grawhill companies; 2003.
Enders W. Applied econometric time series. John Wiley & Sons; 2008.
Lutkepohl H. New Introduction to Multiple Time Series Analysis. Springer Science & Business Media; 2005. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-540-27752-1. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-540-27752-1
Thompson MR. The Anti-Marcos Struggle. Personalistic Rule and Democratic Transition in the Philippines. Yale University Press; 1995.
Sicat GP. The philippines in 1983: Economic crisis in perspective. Southeast Asian Affairs; 1984. pp. 249–65. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1355/SEAA84N
Gomez ET, Jomo KS. Malaysia’s political economy: Politics, patronage and profits. CUP Archive; 1999.
Phongpaichit P, Baker CJ. Thailand: Economy and politics. (No Title). 2002;
Nasution A. An evaluation of the banking sector reforms in Indonesia, 1983-1993. Asia-Pac Dev J. 1994;1(1):63–90.
Hill H. Indonesia’s New Order: the dynamics of socio-economic transformation. 1994;
Krugman PR. The return of depression economics. WW Norton & Company; 1999. https://doi.org/10.2307/20020239. DOI: https://doi.org/10.2307/20020239
Corsetti G, Pesenti P, Roubini N. What caused the Asian currency and financial crisis? Japan World Econ. 1999;11(3):305–73. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/S0922-1425(99)00019-5
Radelet S, Sachs JD. The onset of the East Asian financial crisis. National bureau of economic research Cambridge, Mass., USA; 1998. https://doi.org/10.3386/w6680. DOI: https://doi.org/10.3386/w6680
Obstfeld M, Rogoff K. The Mirage of Fixed Exchange Rates. Vol. 9. J Econ Perspect. 1995;9(4):73–96. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1257/jep.9.4.73
Friedman M. The Role of Monetary Policy. Am Econ Rev. 1968;LVIII(1).
Phelps ES. Phillips Curves, Expectations of Inflation and Optimal Unemployment over Time [Reply,Internet]. Economica. 1968;35(139):288–96. Available from: http://www.jstor.org/stable/2552305 DOI: https://doi.org/10.2307/2552305
Rich RW, Rissmiller D. Understanding the recent behavior of US inflation. Available at SSRN 722506. 2005
Corrigan TD. The Relationship Between Import Prices and Inflation in the The Relationship Between Import Prices and Inflation in the United States United States. WCBT Faculty Publications [Internet]. 2005;18. Available from: https://digitalcommons.sacredheart.edu/wcob_fac