How Does the Impact of Political and Economic Risks Affect Foreign Investment in ASEAN-7
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.18502/kss.v10i5.18091Keywords:
economic risk, political risk, foreign direct investment, panel corrected standard error (PCSE), ASEAN-7Abstract
Unstable economic and political conditions can increase uncertainty and potential foreign investment losses. According to Marsh (2019), ASEAN-7 countries (Indonesia, Myanmar, Vietnam, Thailand, Malaysia, Philippines, and Cambodia) have high and medium economic and political risks in ASEAN. An in-depth analysis of foreign investment that is assumed to be correlated with economic and political risk is required. The research methodology used is the Panel Corrected Standard Error (PCSE) as the analysis technique. The results show that economic risk with trade openness indicator positively and significantly affects foreign direct investment. This means that when ASEAN-7 countries have the ability to increase their international trade activities, the flow of FDI will increase. Political risk with political stability indicator has a positive and significant effect on Foreign Direct Investment. This means that good political stability conditions in ASEAN-7 will increase FDI flows to ASEAN-7 countries. The corruption perception index negatively and significantly affects the foreign direct investment. This means that the more corrupt the countries in ASEAN-7, the higher the FDI flow to ASEAN-7 countries.
References
Fazaalloh AM. FDI and economic growth in Indonesia: a provincial and sectoral analysis. J Econ Struct. 2024;13(1):3. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1186/s40008-023-00323-w
Tyrkba KV, Yashina MG. Determinants of FDI in ASEAN Countries. Lecture Notes in Networks and Systems. 2021;198:1939–48. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-69415-9_213
Dang VC, Nguyen QK. Determinants of FDI attractiveness: evidence from ASEAN-7 countries. Cogent Soc Sci. 2021;7(1):2004676. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1080/23311886.2021.2004676
Qolbi, N., & Kurnia, A. S. (2015). Intra ASEAN-5 Capital Flows: Do They Represent Neoclassical Belief or Lucas Paradox? DOI: https://doi.org/10.21098/bemp.v18i2.521
Dal Bianco S, Loan NC. Fdi inflows, price and exchange rate volatility: new empirical evidence from Latin America. International Journal of Financial Studies. 2017;5(1):6. DOI: https://doi.org/10.3390/ijfs5010006
Al-kasasbeh O, Alzghoul A, Alghraibeh K. Global FDI inflows and outflows in emerging economies Post-COVID-19 era. Future Business Journal. 2022;8(1):53. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1186/s43093-022-00167-z
Yuliarti, Aimon, H., & Adry, M. R. (2017). Goncangan Faktor Internal dan Eksternal terhadap Investasi Asing Langsung di Indonesia. DOI: https://doi.org/10.24036/ecosains.11064557.00
Aijaz H, Siddiqui A, Aumeboonsuke V. (2014). Role of Interest Rate in Attracting the FDI: Study on ASEAN 5 Economy. In International Journal of Technical Research and Applications (Vol. 1, Issue 2). www.ijtra.com
Chakrabarti A. (2001). The Determinants of Foreign Direct Investment: Sensitivity Analyses of Cross-Country Regressions. In KYKLOS (Vol. 54). DOI: https://doi.org/10.1111/1467-6435.00142
Igamo AM. Pengaruh Risiko Ekonomi terhadap Penanaman Modal Asing di Negara ASEAN (Studi Kasus Perbandingan antara Negara Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapura, Thailand, Filippina, Brunei dan Myanmar). J Econ Dev. 2015;32:75–80. DOI: https://doi.org/10.29259/jep.v13i2.4856
Zaman Q. uz, Donghui, Z., Yasin, G., Zaman, S., & Imran, M. (2018). Trade Openness and FDI Inflows: A Comparative Study of Asian Countries. European Online Journal of Natural and Social Sciences, 7(2), 386–396. http://www.european-science.com386
Najarzadeh R, Shaghaghi Shahri V. (2008). The Ranking of the OIC Member Countries Based on Factors Influencing Their Inward Foreign Direct Investments. In Iranian Economic Review (Vol. 13, Issue 21).
Salehnia N, Karimi Alavijeh N, Taher Ahmadi Shadmehri M. (2019). The Effect of Economic, Financial, and Political Risks on Foreign Direct Investment in the Selected Countries of the MENA Region. https://www.researchgate.net/publication/335676834
Shah Abadi, A., M. A. Determinants of Foreign Direct Investment in Iran. Journal of Economic Queries. 2006;5:92–129.
Sottilotta CE. Rethinking Political Risk: Concepts, Theories. Challenges (Basel). 2017. DOI: https://doi.org/10.4324/9781315606156
Gokmenoglu K, Kirikkaleli D, Eren BM. Time and frequency domain causality Testing: the causal linkage between FDI and economic risk for the case of Turkey. J Int Trade Econ Dev. 2019;28(6):649–67. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1080/09638199.2018.1561745
Mustaque M, Ibne M, Mustaque Khan M. The Impact of Political Risk on Foreign Direct Investment. 2013.
Staats JL, Biglaiser G. Foreign Direct Investment in Latin America: The Importance of Judicial Strength and Rule of Law. Int Stud Q. 2012;56(1):193–202. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1468-2478.2011.00690.x
Pierre, N. (2015). Foreign direct investment: Rule of law and corruption. Asia-Pacific Journal of Financial Studies, 44(2 Special Issue), 281–297. https://doi.org/10.1111/ajfs.12089. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1111/ajfs.12089
Amalia N. (2022). Political Stability, Index Perception of Corruption and Direct Foreign Investment in Southeast Asia. 11(02), 187–196. https://ojs.unud.ac.id/index.php/EEB/ DOI: https://doi.org/10.24843/EEB.2022.v11.i02.p06
Azizah N, Zakiyyah A, Ramadhona F, Lubis A, Ainy RN, Dahlan UA. The Effect of Macroeconomic. Institutional and Corruption Variables on FDI in ASEAN Countries; 2024. DOI: https://doi.org/10.31539/costing.v7i3.9498
Hadhek Z, Mrad F. (2015). Trade Openness, Institutions and Economic Growth. http://www.europeanjournalofeconomicsfinanceandadministrativesciences.com
Ahmed Z, Hossen O, Faisal M. (2023). Democracy and Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) Relationship: Empirical Evidence from Bangladesh. https://www.researchgate.net/publication/376956104
Anna C, Karambakuwa RT. The impact of interest rates on foreign direct investment: A case study of the Zimbabwean economy. Vol. 1, International Journal of Management Sciences and Business Research. 2012.
Asif M, Majid A, Yasir M, Ali A. Fluctuations in political risk indicators and their impact on FDI inflow in Pakistan. Asian J Technol Innov. 2018;26(3):269–89. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1080/19761597.2018.1547115
Akın, T. (2019). The Effects of Political Stability on Foreign Direct Investment in Fragile Five Countries.
Elleuch NM, Jaouadi IZ, Jaouadi S. (2015). Examination of the impact of political and country risk on foreign direct investment inflows in Tunisia. https://www.researchgate.net/publication/272681526
Beck N, Katz JN. What to do (and not to do) with Time-Series Cross-Section Data. In Source. Am Polit Sci Rev. 1995;89(3):634–47. DOI: https://doi.org/10.2307/2082979
Saragih CA, Haryadi H, Emilia E. Pengaruh Produk Domestik Bruto, Suku Bunga, dan Inflasi terhadap Foreign Direct Investment di Indonesia Periode 2000-2017. Jurnal Ekonomi Aktual. 2021 Aug;1(1):35–44. DOI: https://doi.org/10.53867/jea.v1i1.4
Faroh A, Shen H. (2015). Impact of Interest Rates on Foreign Direct Investment: Case Study Sierra Leone Economy. www.ijbmer.com
Vernon R. International Investment and International Trade in the Product Cycle. Q J Econ. 1996;81(2):190–207. DOI: https://doi.org/10.2307/1880689
Thi Kim Lien N. The Effect of Trade Openness on Foreign Direct Investment in Vietnam *. Journal of Asian Finance. 2021;8(3):111–8.
Omankhanlen AE. (2011). The Effect of Exchange Rate and Inflation on Foreign Direct Investment and Its Relationship with Economic Growth in Nigeria. www.ann.ugal.ro/eco
Akın, T. (2019). The Effects of Political Stability on Foreign Direct Investment in Fragile Five Countries.
Urbina DA. The Consequences of a Grabbing Hand: Five Selected Ways in Which Corruption Affects the Economy. Economia. 2020;43(85):65–88. DOI: https://doi.org/10.18800/economia.202001.004
Gossel SJ. FDI, democracy and corruption in Sub-Saharan Africa. J Policy Model. 2018 Jul;40(4):647–62. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jpolmod.2018.04.001
Septiantoro AA, Hasanah H, Alexandi MF, Nugraheni SR. Apakah Kualitas Institusi Berpengaruh pada Arus Masuk FDI di ASEAN? Jurnal Ekonomi dan Pembangunan Indonesia [Internet]. 2020 Jul 1;20(2):197–211. Available from: https://scholarhub.ui.ac.id/jepi/vol20/iss2/5/https://doi.org/10.21002/jepi.2020.12 DOI: https://doi.org/10.21002/jepi.2020.12
Yang B. Autocracy, democracy, and FDI inflows to the developing countries. Int Econ J. 2007;21(3):419–39. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1080/10168730601027179
Barro, R. J. (1996). Democracy and Growth. Journal of Economic Growth, Mar., 1996, Vol. 1, No. 1 (Mar., 1996), pp. 1-27. https://doi.org/10.1007/BF00163340. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/BF00163340
Khan MM, Akbar MI. The Impact of Political Risk on Foreign Direct Investment. 2013. https://doi.org/10.5539/ijef.v5n8p147. DOI: https://doi.org/10.5539/ijef.v5n8p147