Probabilistic Analysis On Levelized Unit Electricity Cost (Luec) Calculation Of Small Medium Reactor Nuclear Power Plant (Smr Npp) In Indonesia
Abstract
SMR NPP is an alternative to overcome the dependency to diesel power plant especially in outside Java Bali system. Economic analysis is a crucial thing that should be done prior to any investment decision on the SMR NPP project and generally done by calculation of Levelized Unit Electricity Cost (LUEC). NPP projects, include SMR, are vulnerable to a number of uncertainty variables. The goal of this study was to perform economic analysis of SMR NPP project with capacity 2 x 100 MWe in Indonesia by incorporating an amount of uncertainty variables, namely the probabilistic approach. The research method is calculating LUEC with deterministic approach followed by the probabilistic approach. Probabilistic approach is done by simulating the effect of uncertainty variable on LUEC using Monte Carlo simulation technique. The results show that the deterministic approach with a discount rate of 10% obtained LUEC at 12.87 cents US$/kWh. Whereas the probabilistic approach obtained LUEC of 13.10 plus minus 1.43 cents USD/kWh at a discount rate of 10% and amounted to 8.11 plus minus 0.88 cents USD/kWh at a discount rate of 5%. calculation in deterministic approach was 12.87 cents USD/ kWh. While LUEC as the results of uncertainty variables simulation on probabilistic approach were 13.10 ± 1.43 cents USD/ kWh on discount rate 10% and 8.11 ± 0.88 cents USD/kWh on discount rate 5%. Occurrence probability of LUEC is less than 13 cents USD/kWh (benchmark value) was about 100% on discount rate of 5% and 50% on discount rate of 10%.[P1]
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