Application Of Trend Analysis Method For Emergency Planningin Npp Accident


A decision for emergency response should be taken based on existing nuclear preparedness assessment. However, lessons learned from the Fukushima accident revealed that emergency response personals had difficulties in estimating time duration needed for the emergency actions. For that case, it is needed an alternative way to determine the time required for a response to be implemented. The objective of this paper is to applicate the trend analysis method for an emergency planning in NPP accident, especially to estimate time duration of countermeasures such as sheltering, evacuation, and relocation. Estimation was done based on consequences and dose data of PWR-1000 MWe severe accident which was simulated for West Bangka site. Dose and consequence estimations were calculated using Pc-cosyma software, and trend analysis application was performed using statistical software. The result of simulation are:  iodine tablets are to be distributed to residents in the area within radius of 20-30 km; sheltering countermeasure is needed within the radius of 20-30 km for 12 weeks; evacuation is subjected for the area of 20 km from reactor for duration of 12 weeks; relocation is subjected to radius of 10 km for 2.5 years. The trend analysis can be used for supporting the decision making, especially for emergency planning. The advantage of this method is that it can provide quicker result than past methods. Besides, uncertainties can be reduced by using accurate input data and selection of suitable computation model.

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